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Coming Soon – – – –
In a speech by the Managing Director of Daimler Benz (MERCEDES), he predicted what lies ahead. . .
The competitors of the German car companys are no longer other car companies but they are Tesla , Google, Apple, and Amazon.
New software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next five to ten years.
Uber is just a software tool, but they don’t own any cars, and they are now the largest taxi company in the world
Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don’t own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence Computers will become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year. a computer beat the best “Go” player in the world, ten years earlier than expected.
In the U.S., young lawyers already can’t find jobs, because of IBM Watson. You can get legal advice (more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you intend to become a lawyer, think about it. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future. Only specialists will remain.
IBM Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, four times more accurately than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans can. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent in many ways than humans.
Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear. Around 2020, the complete auto industry will start to really change. You won’t need to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your cell phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it. You will only pay for the driven distance and you can be productive, doing other things in transit. Our kids will not need to get a driver’s license and will never need to own a car.
It will change cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars in cities. Former parking spaces will be turned into parks.
Over A million people now die each year in auto accidents worldwide. We now average one accident per 60,000 miles, but with autonomous driving that should drop to one accident in six million miles, saving a million lives per year.
Present car companies need to start changing immediately. Up to now, they have done things little by little, building a better car each year. High tech companies, (Tesla, Apple, Amazon, Google) are making major changes each year. They almost build a new “computer on wheels” each year.
The engineers at Volkswagen and Audi are terrified of Tesla.
Insurance will become a hundred times cheaper, because without accidents, the need for insurance will shrink.
Real estate will change, because people will be able to afford to commute to work from a greater distance, and they’ll be able to do productive work en-route.
Electric cars will become mainstream by 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean. Solar produced electricity is increasing a lot. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil fuel to produce electricity. Energy companies are trying to compete, but technology will win.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kwh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don’t have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if everyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for very little cost.
Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the “Tricorder” from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free. There will be less need for medical establishments.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within just 10 years. At the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing OF shoes.
Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You will then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.
In China, they have already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that’s being produced will be 3D printed.
Business opportunities: If you think of a nice niche for yourself, and you want to go into it, ask yourself: “in the future, will we still have that nitch?” If the answer is yes, go for it. Then try to make it happen sooner.
Anything that doesn’t work with your phone, forget it. Ideas designed for success in the 20th century will be obsolete in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80% of present jobs will change or disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but they will be different, so you have to be willing to learn a new one.
Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries will become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.
Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish-produced-veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow-produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural land is used to feed cows. There are several startup companies who will be producing high proteen “fake meat” with more protien than real meat. It will be labelled as “alternative protein”.
There is an app called “moodies” which can tell in which mood you’re in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it’s being displayed when they’re telling the truth and when they’re not.
Bitcoin may become the default reserve currency of the world!
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months every year. Four years ago, the life span was 79 years, now it’s 80 years. By 2036, the average life span will be 120 years.
Education: The cheapest smart phones are already only $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. Everyone will have access to a world-class education. Every child will be able to use Khan Academy for everything the child needs to learn in school. There have already been releases of software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this summer. We will give the English app for free, so that children in Africa and everywhere else can become fluent in English, the universal language of the world, within just a few months.
This completed his speech.
When I got my first job in a dealership, the 1955 Buicks were selling so well the plant in Flint was working 3 shifts.
(Hassan named me “Buckeye John”)
Raised on Buicks, always will be a Buick guy.
Graduated from The Ohio State University
Graduated from General Motors Institute, Flint Michigan
Drafed into the US Army where I taught NATO troops how to repair RADARs on our Nike Guided Missles, aimed at Russia and Red China.
Buick Motor Division Service Rep for New York City
Taught at the GM Training Center in Tarrytown, NY, when needed.
44 years a Buick and Pontiac dealer.
Now we lease used cars to local people who need wheels.
Invited to join the Conference Call by Bob Savo.
My Memories Of Jerry Flint” Presented 10-16-2010 at a service at St.Chardin on Hudson, Stuyvesant, NY
I’m John Noecker. In the early 1960s I was the “Buick Factory Man” in New York City, and after that I was the Buick and Pontiac dealer in Hudson, NY for 44 years. Now I lease used cars to local people and we include all the servicing and maintenance at no extra charge.
I knew OF Jerry Flint for many years, but had never met him. Then I read an article that he wrote on August 16, 2006 about my customer, Ken Hummel. Ken, as many of you know, died while polishing the wheels on his beloved Pontiac Solstice. I was Ken’s dealer and had sold him the car on Feb 15, 2006. I brought along 3 pictures of Ken and his wife taking delivery of their new car.
Jerry wrote in his article, “Ken had an honest dealer.” I contacted Jerry and told him I was the “honest dealer,” and offered to buy lunch.
On December 30, 2008, Jerry walked into my showroom, and I immediately felt as though I had a new friend. Our ages were less than 3 years apart. I brought 2 pictures of that day with me today. They are back on that table..
Jerry spotted the Ohio State logo on my wall and started telling me about a King Midget car built in Athens, Ohio, that he had driven from coast to coast, and wrote an article about. I owned a King Midget that I bought from the same factory in Athens, Ohio for $850. New. The King Midget was a two passenger car that looked like a WWII Jeep. It had a Briggs and Stratton one cylinder motor, a two speed automatic transmission, and a top speed of 35 mph. I drove my King Midget from Ohio to Alabama, where I was in the Army. My job in the Army was teaching NATO troops how to repair the RADARS on our Nike Guided Missile sites in Europe, aimed at Russia. Jerry served in Europe in the Army. I taught European troops in Alabama.
Jerry graduated from college in 1953 from Wayne State University. I graduated from college in 1955 from The Ohio State University.
Also in my showroom, Jerry spotted my telegraph key and Ham Radio station that I use when I’m talking with Hams around the world by Morse Code. He told me of his Morse Code experience in Europe where he decoded messages for his Army Intelligence Unit in Germany,
Jerry was a General Motors history buff. I am too. He was on the outside looking in at GM, and I was on the inside looking out.
Several times he commented that he liked spending time with me because I was the only one left who knew what he was talking about. “John, you’re the only one left who knows what I’m talking about.” Believe me, I enjoyed every minute.
When he would pick me up to go to lunch, he’d always hand me the keys to whatever Press Car he was driving that weekend, so I could try it out and tell him what I thought of it.
The last lunch we had together was with Kate, at the Plaza Diner in Hudson. Jerry had some important information to give to Bob Lutz, but Bob had retired from GM, and Jerry didn’t know where to find him. Fortunately, I knew Bob’s personal e-mail address, and I gave it to Jerry. The next day I told Bob what I had done, and he said he had heard from Jerry, and thanks for the help.
A month later, I was about to send Jerry an e-mail to set up our next lunch when I got the bad news. I noticed my wife suddenly started watching me real close and giving me a lot attention. I could not get Jerry off my mind, and his memory will always be right here in my heart.
When Kate invited me to come here and say a few words, she specified no more than two minutes. I asked Bob Lutz what I should say, and he said to keep it up-beat and keep it short.
Kate, thank you so much for inviting me. And thanks to all of you for letting me share some of my memories of Jerry Flint my friend.
I love to say “I’m a Buckeye” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3Z52GKONPc&feature=email
I grew up in Columbus, Ohio, and would ride my bike to the Ohio Stadium with my friends, and run up and down the steps, just for fun. The Ohio State University vs University of Michigan rivalry brings out the best in each.
Go Bucks, Go Blue!
With my BSc Degree from “The Ohio State University” and my two years at General Motors Institute in Flint, Michigan, I was heading for the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, for a Masters Degree, but Uncle Sam had other plans, and I was drafted into the US Army, to train NATO troops and our own GIs, how to repair of our Nike Guided Missile System radars, on-site, where ever they were deployed.
Fortunately, just our deployment of those surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missiles in Europe facing Russia and on the islands of Quemoy and Matsu between China and Taiwan was enough, and no hostile missiles had to be fired.
I talk with radio Hams all over the world via short wave, usually by Morse Code. On a recent “Round Table”, one Ham commented: “Everyone walks around complaining, miserable, head down, and negative, while John walks around with the sun shining on him, with something good to say, every time.”
T U OM (that’s Morse Code abbreviations for “thank you old man”).
I am truly blessed in so many ways.
Why a Buick dealer?
I was born in a second floor bedroom of a rented house, because the Big Depression was on, and we couldn’t afford to go to a hospital. Later we moved to the north end of Columbus, Ohio.
Columbus is a great city. Always has been.
I started delivering newspapers at age 10 (it was legal for a kid to work back then), and in the summer time I also worked at the local Olympic swimming pool, which was managed by the North High Football Coach, Mike Hagley. A wonderful man.
Our house had a screened porch on the side, where I slept at night during the hot weather. No one had home air conditioning.
A number of the older boys in the neighborhood had old cars, most of which were “hot rods” or wanna-be hot rods with noisy mufflers. I soon learned that I could tell which one was coming down my street just by the sound of it. Pretty soon I could tell what brand of car was passing by without even looking at it, just by the sound it made. Each brand of car had its own distinctive engine and drive train sound, and each sounded different.
One of my paper route customers, Mr. and Mrs. Vernon Regal, introduced me to a self-made electronics genius, Mr. Warren Bauer. He had a Ham Radio station, W8IJV, in his cellar, and he could talk by microphone and by Morse Code with other “Hams” around the world via short wave. Pretty soon I became totally focused on electronics. Not a bad thing for an eleven-year-old kid.
I made my own portable radios, some of which had loud speakers, and some of which used head phones. I would carry one along on my bicycle as I delivered my newspapers on Saturday afternoons, tuned in to the Ohio State football games on WBNS. WBNS still carries every Ohio State football game, home or away.
Columbus was and is still totally focused on Ohio State football. Ohio Stadium was a 20 minute bicycle ride from my house. I soon became convinced that Almighty God Himself is a big Ohio State fan, and the Ohio State Marching Band music is what you hear after you die and are marching into heaven past Saint Pete. It’s like no other, and hundreds of thousands of Buckeyes know it. I can’t imagine what life would be without it.
Another little radio I built was mounted on an upside-down metal cake pan as a chassis. It had one tube, a regenerative circuitry, and was powered by dry-cell batteries, one to power the filament, and one for “plate” voltage for the tube. I listened to Radio Australia and the BBC (British Broadcasting Company) with it. My bedroom was the attic, converted by my dad into a perfect place for a young boy with hobbies. I put an ad in the local community weekly newspaper, “The Booster” which said “Give your old radio to an ambitious young boy to learn from”. A half-dozen people did. My antenna was just a long piece of copper wire purchased at the local hardware store, tied around the telephone pole in the corner of my back yard.
At night before going to bed, I would tune several of the big old 13-tube radios to WOSU, the Ohio State University radio station, after it went off the air at 8PM, so that when it signed back on the air at 7AM I was awakened by “Good Morning! This is radio station WOSU, the Ohio State University in Columbus, Ohio. And now we invite you to enjoy some music by John Philip Sousa.” And away it would go, booming and blasting ” Stars and Stripes Forever” and all the patriotic march songs, for 30 wonderful minutes. Those big 15 inch speakers on those ancient 13 tube “console” radios had a sound all their own – so full, rich, and vibrant. Those old radios that people had given me as a result of the newspaper ad consumed enough electric power to heat a house, but what a wonderful sound to wake up to.
In my spare time at school and at home, I read every electronics book and magazine I could get my hands on. I would write a letter to the manufacturer of each radio I would acquire, asking for any owner or technical manuals they might be willing to send me. Every one of them was unbelievably generous. My “Life In The Cheap Lane” lifestyle had very early beginnings.
In June, 2005 I applied for a got my Ham Radio Operator’s License from the FCC.
One of my favorite people in the whole world was my Aunt Trudie. She had a beautiful 1940 Chevy Master Deluxe Club Coupe. At age 17, I bought it from her with $400 that I had earned on my newspaper route. And then and there I decided that cars were going to be a very important part of my life. It was an 11 year old car, and so beautiful.
I soon got the reputation of being the most careful driver in Lancaster High School, and when we had an “away game” in another town there were parents of several good-looking girls whose parents would not let them go to out-of-town ball games “unless you ride in John’s car”.
I loved to drive. Still do. Never an accident of any kind in over a million miles. Never. None. Zero.
One day I bought a 1937 Hudson Terraplane 4 door sedan for $85. The kid who had it had painted it light blue, using some sort of a flit gun hooked to his Mom’s vacuum cleaner. The wiring harnesses were badly deteriorated. I meticulously unwrapped the wiring harnesses and replaced every wire, one at a time. A labor of love. To this day, I am known as “The Wiring Harness Guy” by some of the Buick Factory Engineers, because when all else fails when trying to fix a troublesome car, chances are you have a wiring harness problem.
My younger sister, Sandy, learned to drive on that stick shift car. We called it “the blue goose”, because the front grille design. The lower part of the grille stuck out farther than the top part, similar to the “dust buster” look of the early Pontiac Transports.
When my friend Jerry Westenbarger hit a tree with his 1940 Dodge, I also bought his car from him, paying him 40 dollars for it. I promptly removed the damaged hood, fenders, grille, everything except the vital stuff, like the radiator and bumper. I got a lot of attention driving around town, looking like a hot rod, until my insurance man saw it and popped my bubble. Darn. It was fun while it lasted. I found a guy with a little body shop who was willing to replace the whole “nose” and paint the whole car for $80. and make a normal car out of it. I drove it to Indiana to visit my friend Chod Douglass and then sold it when I got home.
A month before my high school graduation, I went job seeking. I didn’t want to go to college because I had seen the way college kids act, and I didn’t want people to think I was like that.
I went to the Chevy dealership’s Service Manager and asked for a job, then I went to Jess Holiday, the Ford dealership’s Service Manager, then to Al Bleucher, the Buick Dealership’s Service Manager. Each of them gave me the same answer: “First go to college and get the ‘book learning’ (that’s rural Ohio talk), and then I’ll give you a job”. This was NOT the answer I was looking for. When I told my Mom and Dad , they said “Well then, you better go to college like they said.” No sympathy. So one week after graduation from high school I was a freshman at Ohio State. Three years later I was a graduate of Ohio State. I went year-round, including Summers to get it over-with as quickly as possible. At the same time I worked at a Standard Oil (SOHIO) gas station in Lancaster on weekends, and at a radio repair shop near the campus in Columbus. owned by Fred Oberle and his wife Lee during the week while going to school, so I’d have some spending money and a ready-made excuse to not go “out with the boys” and get into trouble. No spare time is good for a kid.
One week after graduation from Ohio State I was the newest mechanic in training at Dinsmore Buick in Lancaster, Ohio, and I very soon learned why Buick customers are so loyal to Buick and to their Buick cars. Buicks are different and they are better.
My boss, Alden Dinsmore, was an ex-Buick Factory Service Representative, who encouraged me to enroll in a two and a half year co-op program at General Motors Institute, in Buick’s home town of Flint, Michigan. A month at school and a month working, back and forth all year long.
If you have ever done something and enjoyed every single moment of it, then you know what attending GMI was like. It was this boy’s dream of how life should be.
Mary Barra graduated from the same school 25 years later. It’s been re-named now, Kettering University, and it’s not owned by General Motors anymore. She’s now the CEO and Chairman of GM.
The military draft was in full force at the time I was attending GMI, and I could feel them breathing down my neck, so again I doubled-up on courses, scheduling two during the same hour, and I completed everything in just a year and a half. I think I’m the only GMI student to ever have done that – – something about “you can’t be in two places at the same time”. They would not have let me do that had I been anything but an “all A’s” student, and the Dean was an ex-military man who understood. It pays to get all A’s. I would attend the at-the-same-hour classes first one and the next time the other. Then that night I would have a couple of my classmates tutor me on what I missed that day. It was commonplace to help each other that way when the need arose – – not unlike the way the GM dealers helped each other during the big GM strike in the 70s.
Adversity often has an up-side to it if you are willing to adapt to the situation.
I was in the U.S.Army at Ft. Benning, Georgia before my graduation ceremony from GMI. They had to MAIL me my diploma. Uncle Sam needed me.
I hated the inefficiency of the Army. They put me in electronics school in Ft. Monmouth, N.J.
It was so boring I kept falling asleep in class, and then I would get a perfect score on the exam. At one point I was called into the CO’s office because they couldn’t figure out how I did that. They thought I must be hiding some past experience from them, but I wasn’t – – I just liked it and appreciated the potential it held for improving our quality of life in the future.
I’ve always had a knack for “aceing” written tests. I taught my son Robert, how to do it, and he used it to help him get through MIT with three (3) degrees, and then on to the University of North Carolina medical school, with almost all “A’s”. A’s are good. Now he’s an Opthalmologist in Connecticut , and is often invited to come to doctor conventions around the world, to bring them up-to-date of what’s new in their profession.
When my Army classmates went overseas to man the Army’s Nike surface-to-air missile sites, they kept me at Redstone Arsenal, Alabama, (now Marshall Space Center), as an instructor to teach our troops what I had just learned in school as a student. I taught not only OUR GI’s, but I also taught NATO troops from West Germany, Italy, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Belgium, Netherlands, and Turkey how to repair the Nike Missile system radars out in the field where they were deployed world-wide. Fortunately, we never had to use them in combat. Very fortunately. They were good missiles, and the Nike Hercules had nuclear capability. It was a very nervous world at that time.
I saved up all my leave time so I could get out of the Army a monthearly, and I was put on the road by Buick Motor Division of General Motors as a field Service Representative a month before I was officially discharged from the Army. Prioritizing everything comes natural to me. One of the dealerships I called on as the “Factory Man” was the Buick dealer in Hudson, NY.
Buick soon promoted me to Owner Relations Manager of the New York Zone and then to Service Representative for all of New York City. The Big Apple. They don’t give THAT job to no chimps.
That’s a REAL job and I LOVED it. Forget everything bad you ever heard about NY City merchants. Every one of them treated me wonderfully. I could have stayed with General Motors forever, but my long-term desire to be a Buick dealer was gnawing at me, and when the Hudson dealership became available, I had to go for it.
The GM chain of command above me were all friendly toward me, and I was pretty sure they would approve me for a dealership. I had very little money, and Hudson was the only one I could afford. That was September 21, 1964. I was the youngest Buick dealer in the nation.
Most non-business people have no appreciation for how hard it is to run a dealership.
General Motors has done a lot of things right including some great people and some great products.
They rarely ask me for my advice, but I have found that if the time is just right, I can often influence one of the the world’s largest corporations to go in my direction. To openly confront a giant like GM would be real dumb, but a “bump” or a “nudge” at just the right time and place can get results. The people who run the world’s largest corporation have to make decisions just like you and me, and they often they have very little data to base a decision on. That’s when a bump or nudge can work to everyone’s favor.
I am very comfortable associating with the biggest of the big, and I enjoy doing so when the opportunity presents itself. The bigger they are the nicer they are, almost every time.
Some of my favorite slogans are: “Our job is to sell ’em, not to keep ’em”, “We lose a little on each car but we make it up in volume” and of course, “Come say ‘YES’ to NOecker deal”. (our jingle)
Over 15,000 cars have gone down the road from our little corner of Hudson, NY, and still we get a real “high” every time we watch the tail lights of a car we just delivered, going down the road with the car’s new lessee or owner behind the wheel.
We never tire of getting to meet so many nice people coming thru our showroom door, who we would never have known otherwise.
So many of our former employees, customers and business associates have passed away. I have outlived every male ancestor in my family tree.
I want on my tombstone: “Jesus, Family, Country, Buckeyes, Buicks.”
My wife recently said to me: “You haven’t changed one bit since you were a teen-ager.” I think that was a compliment.
Another thing she has said quite a few times, is “You’re always way head of everybody, aren’t you.” You say something, and months or years later it is on the TV News.
Beginning around 2004, I realized something was happening in the car business that wasn’t good. I BEGGED the top GM “Car Czar”, Bob Lutz, to put together an optional economy power train for every Buick model, AND name it the “Super” option. It would be a power-train that gave exceptional gas mileage USING EXISTING COMPONENTS, SO THE COST OF OFFERING IT WOULD BE MINIMAL. Apparently, he could not convince the “powers that be” that it would be a good idea. But he DID establish, at my urging, the tradition of a big vertical-bar grille, portholes, nice wheels, lots of chrome, big tail lights, a sweepspear down the side, and instrumentation that older folks can feel comfortable with as they upgrade from one model year to a newer one.
Meanwhile, I saw the bankruptcy of GM coming and maneuvered our dealership so we could gracefully exit the franchises, while keeping all the GM services we enjoy and use daily. I doubt there is another dealer in the world who is in our position. We cut our expenses dramatically, and “jumped ship” on 2-22-08. By the time the big “crash” in the car industry happened in June 2008, we were “recession proof”.
As the economy gets worse, we gain customers.
June 2008 will go down in history as the date the car business changed forever. Charlie Rose on TV interviewed the top man in GM and asked why he didn’t see this coming. The answer he got was “Nobody saw it coming.” He gets paid $14,000,000 a year FOR LIFE, and he didn’t see it coming.
I saw it coming more than 3 years before it happened.